Breaking down Seattle’s Round 1 strategy

Math Alert: This piece discusses draft value in terms of Marginal AV. Marginal AV measures the expected value of a draft selection based on how players at that position have fared in the past. The ‘Marginal’ bit just refers to the assumption that any warm body can earn about 2 AV a year so these values are the AV provided above 2 AV/year. A more detailed explanation can be found here, at the Football Perspective draft chart.

The Seahawks entered the first day of the draft with picks 1.21, 1.29, 3.92, 4.124, and 5.159. These picks were worth an estimated 40.4 marginal AV over the next five years. I will not compare that to the rest of the NFL, but that haul looked a whole lot worse without the Frank Clark trade a couple of days ago.

After wheeling and dealing a bit, Pete Carroll and John Schneider turned those picks into L.J. Collier and picks 2.37, 3.92, 4.114, 4.118, 4.124, 4.132, 5.142, and 5.159. After the preordained trade downs, the Seahawks have Collier plus an estimated 38.7 marginal AV over the next 5 years. The difference between the remaining expected value for the Seahawks draft today compared to yesterday is 2.7 marginal AV or the 150th overall selection in the draft.

I don’t know if L.J. Collier is a good pick or if he’s a bad pick. From the reaction on Twitter, it probably was a reach at 1.29. But the Seahawks managed to accumulate five additional selections while also adding 11.5 marginal AV.

Collier is not a spectacular selection and I would have preferred adding a WR like N’Keal Harry. But I am also an idiot who has watched maybe five college football games in the past two years.

The Seahawks, per usual, did not do the thing we wanted or expected them to do (expecting them to do the unexpected is a cop-out, you cowards). But by trading back, they covered their ass.

At least they didn’t draft a running back.